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The Impact of News and the SMP on Realized (Co)Variances in the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Market

Beetsma, Roel; de Jong, Frank; Giuliodori, Massimo; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

We use realized variances and covariances based on intraday data from Eurozone sovereign bond market to measure the … dependence structure of eurozone sovereign yields. Our analysis focuses on the impact of news, obtained from the Eurointelligence …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084398

Carry

Koijen, Ralph; Moskowitz, Tobias J; Pedersen, Lasse Heje; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673

Spread the News: How the Crisis Affected the Impact of News on the European Sovereign Bond Markets

Beetsma, Roel; de Jong, Frank; Giuliodori, Massimo; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

We investigate how "news" affected domestic interest spreads vis-à-vis Germany and how it propagated to other countries during the recent crisis period, thereby distinguishing between the so-called GIIPS countries and other European countries. We make original use of the Eurointelligence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083333

Demand-Based Option Pricing

Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan; Pedersen, Lasse Heje; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand pressure in one option contract increases its price by an amount proportional to the variance of the unhedgeable part of the option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067592

Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets

Acharya, Viral V; Lochstoer, Lars; Ramadorai, Tarun - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

futures contracts. Their hedging demand is met by financial intermediaries who act as speculators, but are constrained in risk …-taking. Increases (decreases) in producers’ hedging demand (the risk-bearing capacity of speculators) increase the costs of hedging … 1980-2006, we show that producers’ hedging demand - proxied by their default risk - forecasts spot prices, futures prices …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016244

Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy

Acharya, Viral V; Carpenter, Jennifer - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

stochastic. It then uses the results to explain the dynamics of hedging. Bankruptcy rules are important determinants of corporate … produce the same prices, they can have very different hedging implications. We show that empirical results on the relation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123555

Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-area

Palladini, Giorgia; Portes, Richard - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This analysis tests the price discovery relationship between sovereign CDS premia and bond yield spreads on the same reference entity. The theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between the two credit spreads is confronted with daily data from six Euro-area countries over the period 2004-2011. As...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009365646

An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil’s Real Plan, 1994-1999

Campa, José Manuel; Chang, Kevin; Refalo, James F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

This Paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-US dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through to March 1999. Using options data, we derive implied probability density...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656384

What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?

Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Based on a two-country, two-period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil, we show that there is no theoretical support for the common view that oil futures prices are good predictors of the spot price in the mean-squared error sense; yet under certain conditions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792183

Never Say Never: Commentary on a Policymaker’s Reflections

Obstfeld, Maurice - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

Stanley Fischer is a rarity among economic policymakers. He came to the policy world as an internationally recognized intellectual leader on macroeconomic theory and policy. He confronted numerous emerging market crises, including the globally systemic Asian crisis, as the IMF’s First Deputy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083383