A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for countercyclical monetary policy in many models. In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of alternative univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap...

Monetary policy affects both real variables, such as employment, unemployment and output and nominal variables such as nominal interest and inflation rates. For close to a decade the principal focus of monetary policy has been on inflation. During a recession, or when one appears imminent, the...

This paper considers the existence of a path of GDP corresponding to steady inflation in the prices of domestic goods. We estimate the steady inflation rate of growth, denoted the SIRG, at a little over 4 per cent per annum in the post-float period. Changes in inflation are modelled as a...