In this paper I develop the Discrete Choice Analytically Flexible (DCAF) model of demand for differentiated products. DCAF relaxes the constraints imposed on the matrix of own- and cross-price elasticities of demand by popular analytic discrete choice models such as the Multinomial Logit (MNL)...

This paper shows how particle filtering allows us to undertake likelihood-based inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The models can be nonlinear and/or non-normal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those...

A model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.

A hallmark of modern labour economics is the close interplay between the development of theory, data sources and econometric testing. The evolution of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance (UI) provides a good illustration. The economics of UI has been a very active research area over...

The paper analyses the transmission of liquidity shocks and risk shocks to global financial markets. Using a Global VAR methodology, the findings reveal fundamental differences in the transmission strength and pattern between the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-11 sovereign debt crisis....

The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...

This paper is concerned with methods for analysing spatial data. After initial discussion on the nature of spatial data, including the concept of randomness, we focus most of our attention on linear regression models that involve interactions between agents across space. The introduction of...

This paper provides an overview of the panel VAR models used in macroeconomics and finance. It discusses what are their distinctive features, what they are used for, and how they can be derived from economic theory. It also describes how they are estimated and how shock identification is...

We find that forecasts from DSGE models are not more accurate than either times series models or official forecasts, but neither are they any worse. We also find that all three types of forecast failed to predict the recession that started in 2007 and continued to forecast poorly even after the...

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates...