alternatives and more economically plausible. We discuss implications of our analysis for the estimation of economic models of …

-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …

much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

unbiased forecasts, or slightly upward biased forecast for the debt-GDP dynamics. This result is mostly due to the short sample …

critically reviewed and compared, and their empirical potential highlighted via two applications. The out-of-sample forecast …

squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using … mimimize the true out-of-sample PMSE, allowing for possible misspecification of the forecast models under consideration. We …

, in particular for longer forecast horizons. These results emerge from a detailed disaggregated analysis, while they are …