Showing 1 - 10 of 11
A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207
This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on the business cycle and risk-free rates dynamics …. We develop a general equilibrium model of a productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk … cycle fluctuations, while providing households with a risk-free asset whose real return is pro-cyclical and possibly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848320
This paper establishes new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household income risk in Great Britain and assesses … the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this risk. We address these issues using the British Household …. We then estimate how income risk, measured by the variance and the skewness of the probability distribution of shocks to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872060
This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324269
, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete markets setting. This lowers the issuers … idiosyncratic risk rises during recessions, so does the value of the service flows bestowing the safe asset with a negative ß. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308246
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231969
We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870
We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242149
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315209