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Angelopoulos, Konstantinos - 2019

This paper establishes new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household income risk in Great Britain and assesses the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this risk. We address these issues using the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) by decomposing stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872060

Wage Risk and the Skill Premium

Slavík, Ctirad - 2020

, individual wage risk has also increased. This paper proposes a mechanism through which a rise in wage risk increases the skill … premium. Intuitively, a rise in uninsured wage risk increases precautionary savings, thereby boosting capital accumulation … that the rise in wage risk observed between 1967 and 2010 increases the skill premium significantly. This finding is robust …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824576

Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the Midas Lens

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo - 2022

We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242149

Risk Pooling, Leverage, and the Business Cycle

Dindo, Pietro - 2020

This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on the business cycle and risk-free rates dynamics. We develop a general equilibrium model of a productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk mitigation to households by pooling the idiosyncratic risks of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848320

Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?

Andreasen, Martin M.; Caggiano, Giovanni; Pellegrino, … - 2021

This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324269

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet; Rangazas, Peter - 2021

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231969

The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty

Easaw, Joshy; Grimme, Christian - 2021

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562

Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks : The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W. - 2022

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870

Perceived Uncertainty Shocks, Excess Optimism-Pessimism, and Learning in the Business Cycle

Chatterjee, Pratiti; Milani, Fabio - 2021

What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315209

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the Great Recession

Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021

We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235107