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The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy

Görtz, Christoph - 2019

A VAR model estimated on U.S. data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news TFP shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889175

Business Cycle Narratives

Larsen, Vegard - 2019

Research about narratives’ role in economics is scarce, while real word experience and research in other sciences suggest they matter a lot. This article proposes a view and methodology for quantifying the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892114

Great Volatility and Great Moderation

Grazzini, Jakob - 2019

We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data in order to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892302

Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220135

Switching-Track after the Great Recession

Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021

of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks … deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential output measures … Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224093

Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021

We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235101

The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty

Easaw, Joshy Z.; Grimme, Christian - 2021

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562

Appropriate Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle : Proper Stimulus Policies Can Work

Graves, Philip E. - 2010

meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful recommendations for policy-makers, particularly in times of recession. Others …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139182

Inflation and GDP Dynamics in Production Networks : A Sufficient Statistics Approach

Afrouzi, Hassan; Bhattarai, Saroj - 2023

We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian economies with arbitrary input-output linkages. Analytically, we decompose how production linkages (1) amplify the persistence of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014356604

Financial Development, Cycles and Income Inequality in a Model with Good and Bad Projects

Bougheas, Spiros P.; Commendatore, Pasquale; Gardini, Laura - 2022

We introduce a banking sector and heterogeneous agents in the Matsuyama et al. (2016) dynamic over-lapping generations neoclassical model with good and bad projects. The model captures the benefits and costs of an advanced banking system which can facilitate economic development when allocates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240319