This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …

probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …

Allocation algorithm. For the forecasting experiment, we select 10 sign-adjusted topics that show strong correlations with GDP … information beyond professional forecasts. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that combining Dynamic Factor … solely on hard data across all forecasting horizons, with the greatest improvements seen in nowcasts. These results …

paper considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set …-dimensional setting with an application to forecasting UK inflation at different horizons over the period 2020q1-2023q1. This application …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …

instability models and assess their out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. We compare a benchmark linear random walk model, which …