We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we...

We implement a two-step analysis of fiscal and external causality patterns using a data set covering the 27 EU countries in the period 2002Q1-2023Q4. In the 1st step, we compute fiscal and external sustainability time-varying coefficients, modelling the cointegration relationship between...