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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash

Giglio, Stefano - 2020

We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832080

Asymptotic Variance of Brier (Skill) Score in the Presence of Serial Correlation

Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Liu - 2015

We propose autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. An empirical application in macroeconomics underscores the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531771

Corporate Debt and Stock Returns : Evidence from U.S. Firms During the 2020 Oil Crash

Arezki, Rabah; Cho, Caleb; Nguyen, Ha; Nguyen, Kate; … - 2022

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083040

Reflections on “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”

Im, KyungSo; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Shin, Yongcheol - 2023

This article is our personal perspective on the IPS test and the subsequent developments of unit root and cointegration tests in dynamic panels with and without cross-section dependence. In this note, we discuss the main idea behind the test and the publication process that led to Im, Pesaran...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262740

Gold, Oil, and Stocks: Dynamic Correlations

Baruník, Jozef; Kocenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš - 2015

We employ a wavelet approach and conduct a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between pairs of key traded assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531821

Persistence in the Realized Betas : Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020

This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of the realized betas within the one-factor CAPM for the six companies with the highest market capitalization included in the Spanish IBEX stock market index. Fractional integration methods are applied to estimate their degree of persistence at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838240

Investors' Trading Behaviour and Stock Market Volatility During Crisis Periods : A Dual Long-Memory Model for the Korean Stock Exchange

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020

This study examines the impact of investors' buy and sell trades on Korean stock market volatility across two crisis … on volatility that depends on the type of investor trading and on the phase of the business cycle. Buy orders appear to … be more informative than sell orders since they mostly lower volatility in the pre-crisis periods, while sell and post …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845690

High and Low Prices and the Range in the European Stock Markets : A Long-Memory Approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019

This paper uses fractional integration techniques to examine the stochastic behaviour of high and low stock prices in Europe and then to test for the possible existence of long-run linkages between them by looking at the range, i.e., the difference between the two logged series. Specifically,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866394

Aggregate Insider Trading and Stock Market Volatility in the UK

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Kyriacou, Kyriacos; … - 2023

This paper examines the relationship between aggregate insider trading (AIT) and stock market volatility using monthly …-run increase in stock market volatility; this can be attributed to a combination of insiders manipulating the timing and content of …-regulated market, it is plausible that the main driver of the increase in stock market volatility should be the information effect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347820