This paper introduces a new test of the predictive performance and market timing for categorical forecasts based on contingency tables when the user has non-categorical loss functions. For example, a user might be interested in the return of an underlying variable instead of just the direction....

The contingency table literature on tests for dependence among discrete multi-category variables is extensive. Existing tests assume, however, that draws are independent, and there are no tests that account for serial dependencies?a problem that is particularly important in economics and...

An inherent problem with comparing and ranking competing Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES) models is that they measure only a single realization of the underlying data generation process. The question is whether there is any significant statistical difference in the performance of...

Spatial unit roots can lead to spurious regression results. We present a brief overview of the methods developed in Müller and Watson (2024) to test for and correct for spatial unit roots. We also introduce a suite of Stata commands (-spur-) implementing these techniques. Our commands exactly...

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies...

This paper provides a review of the literature on unit roots and cointegration in panels where the time dimension (T) and the cross section dimension (N) are relatively large. It distinguishes between the first generation tests developed on the assumption of the cross section independence, and...

This paper extends the cross sectionally augmented panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the case of a multifactor error structure. The basic idea is to exploit information regarding the unobserved factors that are shared by other time series in addition to the variable under...

This paper extends the cross sectionally augmented panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the case of a multifactor error structure. The basic idea is to exploit information regarding the unobserved factors that are shared by other time series in addition to the variable under...

This paper analyses the stochastic properties of UK nominal and real wages over the period 1750-2015 using fractional integration techniques. Both the original series and logged ones are analysed. The results generally suggest that nominal wages exhibit a higher degree of persistence, which...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...