Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we … document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of … income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty reduces the mean expectation of income when using professional forecasters …

and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and … show that uncertainty not only determines the type of cooperative policy but also whether countries want to cooperate at … all. Countries facing larger model disagreement also need to face larger uncertainty with respect to policy spillovers to …

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is … constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and … robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of …

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very …, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich … administrative data, we find that firms exposed to high uncertainty decide to "wait and see" before investing, despite generous …

choice deviate from what citizens want but that an increase in uncertainty about policy outcomes decreases this distortion …

common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …

We assess to which degree an international transfer mechanism can enhance consumption risk sharing as well as … analyze the changing dynamics that a EUBS brings about. We find that a EUBS can provide risk sharing by stabilizing relative …-spending shocks. Yet, since this trade-off between allocative efficiency and consumption risk sharing does not exist after certain …

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models … also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate …