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Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events

Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021

Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484

Rising to the Challenge : Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting Techniques for Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2019

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573

Bayesian Estimation of Multivariate Panel Probits with Higher-Order Network Interdependence and an Application to Firms' Global Market Participation in Guangdong

Baltagi, Badi H.; Egger, Peter; Kesina, Michaela - 2022

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel-data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross-sectional units is observed over a short period of time, and cross-sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300866

An Experimental Study on the Effects of Communication, Credibility, and Clustering in Network Games

Charness, Gary - 2019

networks, such coordination may be very difficult to achieve and may depend on the communication technology and the network … structure. We examine how pre-play communication and clustering within networks affect coordination in a challenging … outcome in our game, but restricted communication (where subjects can only indicate their intended action) is almost entirely …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866385

How Communication Makes the Difference between a Cartel and Tacit Collusion : A Machine Learning Approach

Andres, Maximilian; Bruttel, Lisa Verena; Friedrichsen, Jana - 2022

This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free …-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit … sanctions on communication reinforces the direct cartel-deterring effect of sanctions as collusion is more difficult to reach …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243096

Behavioral New Keynesian Models : Learning vs. Cognitive Discounting

Meggiorini, Greta; Milani, Fabio - 2021

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with new and old behavioral elements. Agents in the model exhibit cognitive discounting, or myopia: they discount variables far into the future at higher rates than typically implied in the benchmark model. We investigate the model under different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229788

Adaptive Agents May Be Smarter than You Think : Unbiasedness in Adaptive Expectations

Palestrini, Antonio; Gallegati, Mauro; Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2021

Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217385

Learning from Law Enforcement

Dušek, Libor - 2020

This paper studies how punishment for past offenses affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843418

Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption

Gillingham, Kenneth - 2020

A growing literature points to the effectiveness of leveraging social interactions and nudges to spur adoption of pro-social behaviors. This study investigates a large-scale behavioral intervention designed to actively leverage social learning and peer interactions to encourage adoption of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827672

Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning

Cole, Stephen J. - 2020

The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831652