Showing 1 - 10 of 2,158
We propose a dynamic bank theory with a delayed loss recognition mechanism and a regulatory capital constraint at its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323873
This paper develops a machine-learning method that allows researchers to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects with panel data in a setting with many covariates. Our method, which we name the dynamic causal forest (DCF) method, extends the causal-forest method of Wager and Athey (2018) by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346998
Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable ("treatment") using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832082
models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature … by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility (MF-TVP-SV-VAR). Overall, the MF-TVP-SV-VAR … expert forecasts and show that the MF-TVP-SV-VAR delivers better inflation nowcasts in this regard. Using an optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
We propose a novel identification strategy to measure monetary policy in a structural VAR. It is based exclusively on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822501
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its … examine alternative oil market VAR models. We help the reader understand why the latter models sometimes generated … supply shocks that have been used as external or internal instruments for VAR models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
Recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models often lead to a counterintuitive response of prices (and … output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the … restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262412
dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the … number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is shown that under such restrictions, an infinite-dimensional VAR (or … IVAR) can be arbitrarily well characterized by a large number of finite-dimensional models in the spirit of the global VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276215
The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271966
This paper estimates the causal effect of rural-urban migration on urban production in China. We use longitudinal data on manufacturing firms between 2001 and 2006 and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration due to agricultural price shocks. Following a migrant inflow, labor costs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892144