take the laissez-faire view that policy reactions to the business cycle do not help in a rational expectations world and …

take the laissez-faire view that policy reactions to the business cycle do not help in a rational expectations world and …

substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a … consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead …

post-2009 period the Central Bank was able to stabilize expectations and asset prices when it chose to do so, but this was …

. We investigate the model under different expectational assumptions: rational expectations, subjective expectations with … infinite-horizon learning, and subjective expectations with Euler-equation learning. Under rational expectations, the model … sensitive to the modeling of expectations, and they highlight learning as a key behavioral feature to understand macroeconomic …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …

probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …