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Policy Coordination Under Model Disagreement and Uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten - 2019

What are the incentives for governments to coordinate their policies internationally when there is model disagreement and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and show that uncertainty not only determines the type of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892108

Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events

Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021

Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484

Testing the Dismal Theorem

Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S. J. - 2021

Weitzman's Dismal Theorem has that the expected net present value of a stock problem with a stochastic growth rate with unknown variance is unbounded. Cost-benefit analysis can therefore not be applied to greenhouse gas emission control. We use the Generalized Central Limit Theorem to show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239336

The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty

Easaw, Joshy Z.; Grimme, Christian - 2021

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562

The Distribution of Ambiguity Attitudes

Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von; Wogrolly, Axel; Zimpelmann, … - 2022

This paper analyzes the stability and distribution of ambiguity attitudes using a broad population sample. Using high-powered incentives, we collected six waves of data on ambiguity attitudes about financial markets—our main application—and climate change. Estimating a structural stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241994

Ambiguous Protection

Gründler, Klaus; Hillman, Arye L. - 2021

Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity of intent. We set out a model that when applied...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246466

Investment Responses to Tax Policy Under Uncertainty

Guceri, Irem - 2019

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859606

A Comparison of Regret Theory and Salience Theory for Decisions under Risk

Herweg, Fabian - 2020

Two non-transitive theories to model decision making under risk are regret theory (Loomes and Sugden, 1982, 1987) and … salience theory (Bordalo, Gennaioli, and Shleifer, 2012). While the psychological underpinning of these two approaches is … of choice behavior. We investigate the overlap between these theories and show that original regret theory (Loomes and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850081

Policy Competition, Imitation and Coordination Under Uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten - 2022

The paper analyzes under what circumstances policymakers experiment with policies with uncertain outcomes, when they prefer to imitate policies initiated in other countries, and when they prefer to coordinate policies internationally. Policymakers have private costs of active policies and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289693

Sectoral Uncertainty

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022

We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243086