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Consumption Patterns of Indebted Households : Unravelling the Relevance of Fiscal Policy

Afonso, António; Rodrigues, Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão - 2023

We have investigated the influence of fiscal instruments, notably taxes on income and government spending, on household … consumption in two different samples and two measures of household debt to provide a comprehensive analysis of the topic. We used … government spending or reduced taxes, in the presence of high indebtedness, actually discourage household consumption compared to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346252

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2021

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262

Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Kapounek, Svatopluk; Kučerová, Zuzana; Kočenda, Evžen - 2021

We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625

Categorical Forecasts and Non-Categorical Loss Functions

Bürgi, Constantin - 2020

forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834366

Should Faustmann Forecast Climate Change?

Gars, Johan - 2019

Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409

Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449

Scarcity and Consumption Priorities

Dahan, Momi; Sayag, Doron - 2023

This paper focuses on whether households facing economic scarcity tend to change consumption priorities as measured by the share of spending on necessity goods relative to luxury goods in a large national supermarket chain in Israel for the years 2011–2018. Based on detailed weekly revenue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358647

Contracts, Biases and Consumption of Access Services

Leider, Stephen - 2012

We consider a consumption model that takes into account the valuation and demand uncertainties that consumers face while using access services. Typical examples of such services include telecommunication services, extended warranties for consumer electronics, and club memberships. We demonstrate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111994

Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations : Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael - 2021

primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244244

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations

Coibion, Olivier - 2020

. Information treatments about current and next year's interest rates have a strong effect on household expectations but treatments …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840692