One of the perceived advantages of difference-in-differences (DiD) methods is that they do not explicitly restrict how units select into treatment. However, when justifying DiD, researchers often argue that the treatment is "quasi-randomly" assigned. We investigate what selection mechanisms are...

Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect...

We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the...

We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation,...

We provide a new framework to identify demand elasticities in markets where managers rely on algorithmic recommendations for price setting, and apply it to a dataset containing bookings for a sample of mid-sized hotels in Europe. Using non-binding algorithmic price recommendations and observed...

Understanding the mechanisms through which treatment effects come about is crucial for designing effective interventions. The identification of such causal mechanisms is challenging and typically requires strong assumptions. This paper discusses identification and estimation of natural direct...

We analyze over 44,000 economics working papers from 1980–2023 using a custom language model to construct knowledge graphs mapping economic concepts and their relationships, distinguishing between general claims and those supported by causal inference methods. The share of causal claims within...

We study the estimation of causal treatment effects on demand when treatment is randomly assigned but prices adjust in response to treatment. We show that regressions of demand on treatment or on treatment and price lead to biased estimates of the direct treatment effect. The bias in both cases...

We study how social interaction and friendship shape students' political opinions in a natural experiment at Sciences Po, the cradle of top French politicians. Quasi-random assignments of students into the same short-term integration groups before their scholar curriculum reduce political...

Recent research has shown that females make classrooms more conducive to effective learning. We identify the effect of a higher share of female classmates on students' disruptive behavior, engagement, test scores, and major choices in disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged schools. We exploit the...