Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its … infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate …. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has … general-equilibrium system. Next, we point out some anomalies with the theory: mounting evidence against constant trade …

direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …

direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …