Showing 1 - 10 of 326
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one’s utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex, they implicitly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311701
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Building on a recently developed axiomatic framework to analyze such situations, we test if subjects update their beliefs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484
first-order approximated solution built by perturbation methods accounts for risk. We show that risk matters economically in … a real business cycle (RBC) model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs and that neglecting risk leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834991
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857912
This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314695
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309488
Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity of intent. We set out a model that when applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246466
We propose a new measure of deviations from expected utility, given data on economic choices under risk and uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892237
Loss aversion, risk aversion, and the probability weighting function (PWF) are three central concepts in explaining … decisionmaking under risk. I examine interlinkages between these concepts in a model of decisionmaking that allows for loss averse … commonly observed shapes of PWF and to risk aversion. In particular, I establish a connection between loss aversion and both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350127
We measure individual-level loss aversion using three incentivized, representative surveys of the U.S. population (combined N = 3,000). We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant, with many participants accepting negative-expected-value gambles. This is counter to earlier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081263