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uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625
forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834366
Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
the costs of accessing the CEO. Hiring middle managers at an establishment substitutes for CEO time that is reallocated … increase the use of middle managers in multi-establishment firms. In our model, we assume that the time of the CEO of a firm is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892163
What is a feasible and efficient policy to regulate air pollution from vehicles? A Pigouvian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240477
Thin capitalization rules limit firms' ability to deduct internal interest payments from taxable income, thereby restricting debt shifting activities of multinational firms. Since multinational firms can limit their tax liability in several ways, regulation of debt shifting may have an impact on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842972
This paper critically surveys the growing literature on the policy choices of local governments. First, we identify various reasons for local government policy interactions, including fiscal competition, bidding for firms, yardstick competition, expenditure spillovers, and Tiebout sorting. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315140
The Decentralization Theorem (Oates, 1972) is central to the discussion of fiscal federalism. We revisit the role of consumption spillovers in evaluating the merits of (de)centralization. Unlike the general prediction, a higher degree of spillovers may reduce the difference in utility of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316807