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A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870
This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the “Hartz IV” reform, which reduced the generosity of long-term unemployment benefits. We propose a model with different unemployment durations, where the reform initiates both a partial effect and an equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239563
activity to a financial uncertainty shock during the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE … real activity of an uncertainty shock under different Taylor rules estimated with normal times vs. great recession data … (the latter associated with a stronger response to output). We find that the uncertainty shock-induced output loss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822498
low display more tolerance towards risk in a subsequent incentivized lottery task. This effect is mainly driven by … individuals who more firmly believe that life outcomes are beyond their control. This interaction between risk preferences and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215212
the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250264
Shocks to capital utilization are introduced in a structural macroeconomic closed-economy model with financial frictions to capture disruptions on the ability of the capital stock to provide capital services used in production. Estimates for the Euro Area and the United States show that these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345602
relevant for pass-through: beliefs about the expected duration of the shock and its interaction with price rigidities. We then … employ a hypothetical vignette to study the causal effect of nominal and real rigidities as well as the nature of the shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347021
A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207
What are the incentives for governments to coordinate their policies internationally when there is model disagreement and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and show that uncertainty not only determines the type of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892108
framework. We test the model’s predictions in a laboratory experiment. Both in theory and in the experiment diagnostic … uncertainty decreases the rate of efficient service provision and leads to less trade. In theory, insurance also decreases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314966