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Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449

Sovereign Risk Dynamics in the EU: The Time Varying Relevance of Fiscal and External (Im)balances

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024

Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534429

Is Norway's bird-in-hand stabilization fund prudent enough? : fiscal reactions to hydrocarbon windfalls and graying populations

Harding, Torfinn; van der Ploeg, Frederick - 2009

debt management strategies adopted by Norway and compare these with rules that would prevail under the permanent income … hypothesis and bird-in-hand rule. We conclude that the fiscal reaction functions adopted by Norway have to some extent been … current fiscal rules, since Norway is on a trajectory of turning a current net asset-GDP-ratio close to one into a net debt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276231

The design of pension pay out options when the health status during retirement is uncertain

Kifmann, Mathias - 2008

This paper examines the optimal design of pension plans when the health status during retirement is uncertain. Assuming that the health status affects both life expectancy and the marginal utility of consumption, choice between a lump-sum payment and an annuity can be welfare-enhancing if the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264299

Pension benefit insurance and pension plan portfolio choice

Crossley, Thomas F.; Jametti, Mario - 2008

Pension benefit guarantee policies have been introduced in several countries to protect private pension plan members from the loss of income that would occur if a plan was underfunded when the sponsoring firm terminates a plan. Most of these public insurance schemes face financial difficulty and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272309

Neutral taxation of shareholder income?: corporate responses to an announced dividend tax

Alstadsæter, Annette; Fjaerli, Erik - 2009

The introduction of the 2006 Norwegian shareholder income tax was announced in advance, and it increased top marginal tax rates on individual dividend income from zero to 28 percent. We document strong timing effects on dividend payout on a large panel of non-listed corporations, with a surge of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264543

Harnessing windfall revenues: optimal policies for resource-rich developing economies

van der Ploeg, Frederick; Venables, Anthony J. - 2009

A windfall of natural resource revenue (or foreign aid) faces government with choices of how to manage public debt, investment, and the distribution of funds for consumption, particularly if the windfall is both anticipated and temporary. We show that the permanent income hypothesis prescription...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276227

The Political (In)Stability of Funded Pension Systems

Beetsma, Roel - 2020

We analyze the political stability of capital funded social security. In particular, using a stylized theoretical framework we study the mechanisms behind governments capturing pension assets in order to lower current taxes. This is followed by an analysis of the analogous mechanisms in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838237

Mavericks, Universal, and Common Owners - The Largest Shareholders of U.S. Public Firms

Amel-Zadeh, Amir; Kasperk, Fiona; Schmalz, Martin C. - 2022

We construct a novel data set to show that, between 2003-2020, up to one-fifth of America's largest firms had a non-financial blockholder or insider as their largest shareholder. Blockholders and insiders tend to be less diversified than institutional investors. Measures of "universal" and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013427712

Can Time-Varying Currency Risk Hedging Explain Exchange Rates?

Bräuer, Leonie; Hau, Harald - 2022

Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470324