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We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573
This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306037
How does uncertainty affect the costs of raising finance in the bond market and via bank loans? Empirically, this paper … finds that heightened uncertainty is accompanied by an increase in corporate bond yields and a decrease in bank lending … the value of the lending relationship and lowers the lending rate. Bond investors demand compensation for the increased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892132
This paper estimates the preference scores of CoCo bond buyers and sellers by running multinomial logistic regressions … taking into account both bond and issuing banks' characteristics; it also provides evidence on the role of country …−specific CoCo bond market concentration. Buyers are defined as having a preference for CoCo bonds if their return−to−risk is higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849808
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484
This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel-data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross-sectional units is observed over a short period of time, and cross-sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300866
default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond-holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080055
Interest rates are central determinants of saving and investment decisions. Costly financial intermediation distort these price signals by creating a spread between the interest rates on deposits and loans with substantial effects on the supply of funds and the demand for credit. This study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830109
How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867014
This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848