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An Inflation-Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area
Jarocinski, Marek - 2016
are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981025
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Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
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The Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Sectoral Activity and Prices in the Euro Area
Hahn, Elke - 2021
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area. Using a VAR framework it provides evidence on the magnitude and speed of the impact of exchange rate shocks on activity in all main euro area sectors and on activity and producer prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316897
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Predicting Recession Probabilities with Financial Variables Over Multiple Horizons
Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2021
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316154
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Credit Supply Dynamics and Economic Activity in Euro Area Countries : A Time-Varying Parameter VAR Analysis
Bijsterbosch, Martin - 2014
This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049850
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Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and Their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations
Peersman, Gert - 2014
type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055428
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Persistence and Cycles in the US Federal Funds Rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper uses long-range dependence techniques to analyse two important features of the US Federal Funds effective rate, namely its persistence and cyclical behaviour. It examines annual, monthly, bi-weekly and weekly data, from 1954 until 2010. Two models are considered. One is based on an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089178
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On the Cyclicity of Regional House Prices : New Evidence for U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Flor, Michael - 2015
This paper is mainly concerned with the analysis of regional house price cycles. Based on a newly available data set consisting of the 40 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we introduce a wavelet transform based metric to study the housing cycle synchronization across MSAs. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017380
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Hong Kong Output Dynamics : An Empirical Analysis
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2021
Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321022
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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2017
We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947523