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the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024363
during the period of the financial crisis. In a Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis, finally, we further illustrate the advantages … confidence levels while other models fail to specify the risk correctly. This analysis shows that ignoring the actual nature of … dependence might lead to an underestimation of the risk for portfolios combining EUAs with commodities or equity investments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093522
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756285
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317169
risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the … reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates, risk aversion, and probability weighting and assess the stability of … largely uncorrelated with decisions in other important life domains involving intertemporal trade-offs and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078528
We propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU). We thus generalize rank-discounted utilitarianism (RDU) (proposed by Zuber and Asheim, 2012) to variable population and risky situations and thereby take important steps towards...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315618
In accordance with Basel Capital Accords, the Capital Requirements (CR) for market risk exposure of banks is a … nonlinear function of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Importantly, the CR is calculated based on a bank's actual portfolio, i.e. the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997323
Established tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts based on Rosenblatt probability integral transforms can be manipulated by changing the order of variables in the forecasting model. We derive order invariant tests. The new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916359
estimate the median to lie too close to the distribution's center. The observed bias in expectations is irrespective to risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054022
It is well understood that the two most popular empirical models of location choice - conditional logit and Poisson - return identical coefficient estimates when the regressors are not individual specific. We show that these two models differ starkly in terms of their implied predictions. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157652