for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …

to the fit. Using data for the United States, the euro area and Germany, we assess the performance of boosting when …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a ’data-poor environment’ at the sub-national level by including more than …