information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with … the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks … forecasts based on exponential down-weighting critically depends on the choice of the weighting coefficient. The forecasting …

contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed …

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …