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quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 … the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095154
directly on the relationship between the rate of change of the money stock and inflation. We believe that this is an inferior … instrument for the long-run control of inflation. An important finding that contradicts all of the previous literature is that … the QTM holds for low inflation as well as for high inflation. We discuss how our findings relate to monetarism generally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091422
Traditionally, aggregate liquidity shocks are modelled as exogenous events. Extending our previous work (Cao & Illing, 2008), this paper analyses the adequate policy response to endogenous systemic liquidity risk. We analyse the feedback between lender of last resort policy and incentives of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095988
The paper models the interaction between risk taking in the financial sector and central bank policy for the case of pure illiquidity risk. It is shown that, when bad states are highly unlikely, public provision of liquidity may improve the allocation, even though it encourages more risk taking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316591
-shaped relation between the membership size of MPCs and inflation; our results suggest that the lowest level of inflation is reached … at MPCs with about seven to ten members. Similar results are obtained for other measures, such as inflation variability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753618
We study money creation and destruction in today's monetary architecture within a general equilibrium setting. Two types of money are created and destructed: bank deposits, when banks grant loans to firms or to other banks, and central bank money, when the central bank grants loans to private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950289
We study the short-run effect of elections on monetary aggregates in a sample of 85 low and middle income democracies (1975-2009). We find an increase in the growth rate of M1 during election months of about one tenth of a standard deviation. A similar effect can neither be detected in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315531
find evidence of its linchpin prediction that is not limited to periods of high inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316221
This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively …-Bretton Woods changes in UK inflation are attributable to a fall in the volatility of permanent shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917992
This paper uses the European Commission's Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and … whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers' responses to the … survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB's anchor for price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754359