spread—to predict economic recessions in the United States. We also examine the sources of forecasting gains using a …

spread — to predict economic recessions in the United States. We also examine the sources of forecasting gains using a …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …