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Modelling Structural Breaks in the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - CESifo - 2006

. Second, we apply it to test for breaks in the unemployment rate in the US, the UK and Japan. Our results shed some light on … the empirical relevance of alternative unemployment theories for these countries. Specifically, a structuralist … interpretation appears more appropriate for the US and Japan, whilst a hysteresis model accounts better for the UK experience (and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013068

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Unemployment in the United States : A Nonlinear Approach

Caggiano, Giovanni - 2018

increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to … confirms that the contribution of EPU shocks to the volatility of unemployment at business cycle frequencies is markedly larger …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913269

Modelling Structural Breaks in the Us, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779948

Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence for the United States

Bernardini, Marco; Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2015

Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212082

Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis

Henzel, Steffen; Rengel, Malte - CESifo - 2014

Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a possible driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the different dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948818

Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses

Gronwald, Marc - CESifo - 2009

This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013074

Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production

Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina - CESifo - 2010

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498989

Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows: Evidence from Latin America

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - CESifo - 2012

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010595388

The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP

Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - CESifo - 2010

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671712

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times

Caggiano, Giovanni - 2017

We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947523