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This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time …-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the …-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406171
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013037
We analyze the impact of price stability-oriented monetary strategies (inflation targeting — IT — and constraining … exchange rate arrangements) on inflation persistence using a time-varying coefficients framework in a panel of 68 countries … (1993–2013). We show that explicit IT has a stronger effect on taming inflation persistence than implicit IT and is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962672
In this paper, we explore the degree of anchoring of consumers' individual long-run inflation expectations utilizing …-run inflation expectations became more anchored over the last decades, as the degree of co-movement between short- and long … seems that older cohorts, who experienced the high inflation period of the 1970s, remain less anchored in their long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915565
found to help rationalizing the hump-shaped response of inflation, without resorting to the counterfactual assumption of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094533
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095747
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time …-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the …-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317342
linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131601
individuals use simple rules of thumb (heuristics) to forecast the future inflation and output gap. We compare this model with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405712
This brief exposition suggests that the Federal Reserve System temporarily guarantee a lower bound on stock prices in order to escape the current combination of liquidity trap and credit crunch. It shortly discusses reasons for this measure, consequences, and some alternatives. It is meant as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765775