candidate is expectations: what people expect could affect how they feel about what actually occurs. In a real-effort experiment …, we manipulate the rational expectations of subjects and check whether this manipulation influences their effort provision …-based reference-dependent preferences: if expectations are high, subjects work longer and earn more money than if expectations are low. …

macroeconomic variables and their corresponding expectations. In the empirical analysis, we exploit direct data on expectations from … surveys. To explain the joint evolution of realized variables and expectations, we adopt a DSGE-VAR approach, which allows us … failure of New Keynesian models under the rational expectations hypothesis to account for the dynamic interactions between …

expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural … 2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness …

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect … their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with … response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption …

study the causal effect of unconventional fiscal policies on consumption expenditure via the inflation-expectations channel … (VAT) effective in 2007. This shock increased German households' inflation expectations during 2006, as well as actual …

This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect …). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly associated with expectations even when controlling for aggregate … variance in expectations. Second, we exploit a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of new information on …

expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We provide preliminary evidence for … households increased their inflation expectations and willingness to purchase durables before the increase in VAT. Future …