Bubbles are usually viewed as a threat to financial stability. This paper takes a more nuanced view. The world economy is going through an episode of Secular Stagnation, where the equilibrium rate of return on capital r is below the growth rate of the economy g. As is well-known, rational...

This article derives time-varying threshold multipliers for G7 countries and the euro area, above which consolidation will be self-defeating (that is, leading to an increase rather than a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio). Simulations suggest that these thresholds have declined since the...

While there are many methods to measure the competitiveness of an economy, most of these concepts ignore the fact that competitiveness can change not only because of market processes such as wage negotiation but also because of political decision making. Governments that compete with others for...

In terms of macroeconomic performance, the Eurozone’s first decade is a story of successful inflation-targeting by the ECB for the common currency area as a whole combined with the persistence of real exchange rate and current account disequilibria at member country level. According to the...

The recent financial crisis starting in 2007–2009 is the longest and the deepest recession since the Great Depression of 1930. The crisis that originated in the US subprime mortgage markets spread and amplified through international financial markets and resulted in severe debt crises in...

This article quantifies the welfare differences among a monetary union, flexible exchange rates (economic disintegration) and a monetary plus fiscal transfer union (higher economic integration). The vehicle of analysis is a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model consisting of two heterogeneous...

In the wake of the euro area crisis, the debate on instruments to deepen economic integration among its members has intensified, among others putting forward a fiscal stabilization capacity for Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) members. Contributions made so far to further this idea have mostly...

The euro area will not have a centralized budget, and smoothing of country-specific asymmetric shocks via private financial markets will develop only slowly. Mistrust among the governments has caused rigid, even pro-cyclical, fiscal policies. Smoothing mechanisms are absent due to the fear that...

In this article, we argue that supply-side adjustments (i.e. the reallocation of productive resources between the traded and non-traded sectors) can be an important determinant of the output costs of current account adjustment. The argument relies on the fact that tax evasion is more prevalent...

An important issue for the EMU countries is to what extent fiscal policy can be used to stabilise the domestic economy in the case of asymmetric macroeconomic shocks. The paper reviews possible reforms of national fiscal policy institutions in order to promote efficient fiscal stabilisation...