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Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses

Ghosal, Vivek; Ye, Yang - 2014

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010428770

Wider boundaries : the welfare state and international remittances

Amegashie, J. Atsu; Batu, Michael - 2015

Recent theoretical work shows that precautionary savings increase in response to an increase in first-order risk. In … that an immigrant will increase his remittances in response to a first-order risk decrease in future income. Using changes … in the size and generosity of the welfare state as a measure of changes in future income risk, we empirically test the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300358

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389

Closed-form integrated assessment and uncertainty

Traeger, Christian - 2015

-form expressions of welfare loss from shocks and epistemological uncertainty identify the interaction of (intertemporal) risk attitude …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305430

Leveraged bubbles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2015

What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? This paper studies bubbles in housing and equity markets in 17 countries over the past 140 years. History shows that not all bubbles are alike. Some have enormous costs for the economy, while others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309562

Should we give up after Solyndra? : optimal technology R&D portfolios under uncertainty

Webster, Mort; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Popp, David; … - 2015

Global climate change and other environmental challenges require the development of new energy technologies with lower emissions. In the near-term, R&D investments, either by government or the private sector, can bring down the costs of these lower emission technologies. However, the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298511

The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Kima, Richard - 2020

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213164

Economic policy uncertainty : persistence and cross-country linkages

Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2020

This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden) over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. In particular,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219127

Measuring the economic risk of COVID-19

Noy, Ilan; Nguyen Doan; Ferrarini, Benno; Park, Donghyun - 2020

We measure the economic risk of COVID-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current … prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 and a conceptual disaster risk model to compute measures for exposure ….e., its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012231556

Where you export matters: measuring uncertainty in Turkey's export markets

Fang, Jianchun; Gozgor, Giray; Pekel, Sercan - 2020

Using data from the World Uncertainty, World Trade Uncertainty, and World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring uncertainty in Turkey's export markets from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2020. The indicators...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240442