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A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

The econometrics of oil market VAR Models

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2020

Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174841

Variable selection and forecasting in high dimensional linear regressions with structural breaks

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad - 2020

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability …. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or … variable selection and forecasting stages. In this study, we investigate whether or not we should use weighted observations at …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258549

Oil prices and GCC stock markets : new evidence from smooth transition models

Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben; Ben Naceur, Samy; Kanaan, … - 2018

Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011859438

On the influence of oil prices on stock markets : evidence from panel analysis in GCC countries

Arouri, Mohamed; Rault, Christophe - 2009

This paper implements recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) methods to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between oil prices and Gulf Corporation Countries (GCC) stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003854428

Oil prices and stock markets : what drives what in the gulf corporation council countries?

Arouri, Mohamed; Rault, Christophe - 2010

In the empirical literature, only few studies have focused on the relationship between oil prices and stock markets in net oil-importing countries. In net oil-exporting countries this relationship has not been widely researched. This paper implements the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006),...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003937088

Oil price uncertainty and sectoral stock returns in China : a time-varying approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2014

This paper investigates the time-varying impact of oil price uncertainty on stock prices in China using weekly data on ten sectoral indices over the period January 1997 - Febraury 2014. The estimation of a bivariate VAR-GARCH-in-mean model suggests that oil price volatility affects stock returns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375190

Corporate debt and stock returns : evidence from U.S. firms during the 2020 oil crash

Arezki, Rabah; Cho, Caleb; Nguyen, Ha; Nguyen, Kate; … - 2022

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205096

Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Many questions of economic interest in structural VAR analysis involve estimates of multiple impulse response functions. Other questions relate to the shape of a given impulse response function. Answering these questions requires joint inference about sets of structural impulse responses,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421682

An alternative conditional asymmetry specification for stock returns

Brännäs, Kurt; Nordman, Niklas - 2001

The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115