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To consolidate or not to consolidate? : a multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar - 2022

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938962

Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?

Afonso, António; Alves, José - 2022

We evaluate the impact of government spending efficiency on fiscal sustainability for a panel of 35 OECD countries during the period of 2007-2020. To answer our research question we first compute the magnitude of the responses of government revenues to changes in government spending. Next, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013187684

The pressure is on : how geopolitical tensions impact institutional fiscal and external stability responses

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024

In this article, we study the effects of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients. We use Schlicht’s (2021) methodology to estimate time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients for the EU for 27 economies between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014517944

What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? : a panel data diagnostic

Afonso, António (contributor); … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641707

Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes : a panel analysis of the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we find that the effect of monetary shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014336399

The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn's (1998) approach through Schlicht's (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313459

Budgetary and external imbalances relationship : a panel data diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2009

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003808652

Twin deficits through the looking glass : time-varying analysis in the euro area

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813893

Pay and unemployment determinants of migration flows in the European Union

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Beck, Krzysztof - 2022

We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995-2019 period, we use Bayesian Model Averaging and quantile regression to assess notably the relevance of unemployment and earnings. We find that the existence of a common border...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463673

Consumption patterns of indebted households : unravelling the relevance of fiscal policy

Afonso, António; Rodrigues, Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão - 2023

consumption in two different samples and two measures of household debt to provide a comprehensive analysis of the topic. We used … fiscal impulses increase private consumption, but when households are highly indebted, patterns change, and increased … government spending or reduced taxes, in the presence of high indebtedness, actually discourage household consumption compared to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314290