Carstensen, Kai; Kießner, Felix; Rossian, Thies - 2023
In this paper we augment the Bayesian unobserved components model of the EU Commission to estimate the cyclical …, consider the usual autumn forecast of the EU Commission in October of a year T. For the last two "in-sample" years T − 2 and T … two "out-of-sample" years T + 1 and T + 2 also considered relevant by the EU Commission are quantitatively smaller (up to …
