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Are fiscal multipliers estimated with proxy-SVARs robust?

Angelini, Giovanni; Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2020

How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogenous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile the existing estimates via a flexible vector autoregressive model that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249273

Domestic and global uncertainty : a survey and some new results

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019

This survey features three parts. The first one covers the recent literature on domestic (i.e., country-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119543

The bail-out! : positive political economics of greek-type crises in the EMU

Fahrholz, Christian; Wójcik, Cezary - 2010

analysis suggests that, given EMU's present political-economic set-up, i) the bail-out was unavoidable, ii) the lengthy process … with a future moral hazard problem. Based on our analysis, we suggest that the EMU's institutional design could be improved … processes as well as the conditions and parameters on which the scope and limits of fiscal redistribution in EMU depends. In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008697133

The Eurozone needs exit rules

Fahrholz, Christian; Wójcik, Cezary - 2012

This paper argues that the key issue for defining and solving the Eurozone's (EZ) difficulties lies in readjusting the relationship between the centre and the periphery of the EZ. Our argument proceeds in two steps. Firstly, the basic finance problem of a centre-periphery system is captured by a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009570716

Catching up : the role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries

MacDonald, Ronald; Wójcik, Cezary - 2003

The main aim of this paper is to examine the exchange rate behavior of a group of four transitional, EU accession countries, with a view to making policy recommendations regarding their accession to full European Monetary Union. We employ a dynamic OLS panel estimator to investigate the relative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506491

Fiscal sustainability in the EU after the global crisis : is there any progress?

Wysocki, Maciej; Wójcik, Cezary - 2018

In response to the global crisis a number of new institutional measures have been introduced in the fiscal framework, both on the UE and on the member states’ level, and the question is: have these measures provided better fiscal sustainability outcomes? We approach this question by looking at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900847

Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Damette, Olivier; … - 2018

This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863616

What do we know about the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy? : a brief survey of the literature on fiscal multipliers

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Lim, Guay C. - 2018

This article reviews recent research findings on the effects of fiscal multipliers in normal times, during booms/busts, and in the presence of the zero lower bound. Studies on the effects of fiscal policy in open economy settings as well as contributions on the fiscal-monetary policy mix are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933907

Populists and fiscal policy : the case of Poland

Wysocki, Maciej; Wójcik, Cezary; Freytag, Andreas - 2022

The past decade has witnessed an increase in populist movements across the world. Some of those movements have gained strong political support and formed populist governments promising new sets of economic and fiscal policies. This raises the pertinent policy question: how do such populist...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472411