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Twin deficits through the looking glass : time-varying analysis in the euro area
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022
Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813893
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Long-run determinants of sovereign yields
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2010
We study sovereign bond yields in OECD countries with a dynamic panel by checking for cross-section dependence …; assessing panel cointegration; and estimating panel error-correction models. The results show that markets consider budgetary … and external imbalances and inflation as relevant determinants of sovereign yields. -- long-term yields ; panel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653417
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Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2009
period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based … budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France … effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results. -- Panel causality tests ; budget …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003818006
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Fiscal sustainability and the role of inflation
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Matvejevs, Oļegs; … - 2023
We examine the relationship between inflation and fiscal sustainability with a two-step approach. In the first step, we estimate to estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability using the fiscal reaction function. This function captures the response of the primary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014444867
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Short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields
Afonso, António - 2010
-term yields ; EU ; financial integration ; panel cointegration ; bootstrap … period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the … estimator of Pesaran (2006) and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732265
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Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022
conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162289
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Austerity, growth and inflation : remarks on the Eurozone's unresolved competitiveness problem
Sinn, Hans-Werner - 2013
While the financial protection measures enacted by the ECB and the community of Eurozone members have calmed financial markets, they have left the competitiveness problem of the Eurozone's southern countries and France unresolved. The paper compares price inflation before the crisis with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009691625
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Fiscal consolidation and the current account : OECD evidence
Breuer, Christian; Nam, Chang-woon - 2020
We apply a "new" conventional (CAPB-based) measure of fiscal policy, which is less prone to endogeneity issues, and find that a 1-percent of GDP fiscal consolidation leads to the improvement of the current account-to-GDP ratio by approximately 0.8 percent of GDP, while previous research based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157972
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Fiscal divergence and current account imbalances in Europe
Schnabl, Gunther; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2013
changes and credit facilities as adjustment mechanisms for current account imbalances. Panel regressions reveal a robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009702880
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Macroeconomic policy making and current account imbalances in the euro area
Murai, Taiki; Schnabl, Gunther - 2021
The paper analyses the role of fiscal and monetary policy for the development of the current account imbalances in the euro area, including the most recent developments during the coronavirus crisis. Several financial transmission channels such as international bank lending, changes in TARGET2...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550195