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Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2021

detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to … near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550202

Great moderation at the firm level? : unconditional vs. conditional Output volatility

Buch, Claudia M. (contributor); Döpke, Jörg (contributor); … - 2008

Aggregated output in industrialized countries has become less volatile over the past decades. Whether this Great Moderationʺ can be found in firm level data as well remains disputed. We study the evolution of firm level output volatility using a balanced panel dataset on German firms that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003720335

Output effects of inflation with fixed price- and quantity-adjustment costs

Danziger, Leif (contributor) - 2005

With fixed costs of price and quantity adjustment, output effects of inflation depend on the elasticity of the firm's marginal real revenue. If the elasticity always exceeds minus unity, then output decreases with inflation, while if the elasticity is always less than minus unity, then output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003121028

What drives aggregate investment?

Bachmann, Ruediger; Zorn, Peter - 2013 - This Version: April 13, 2013

Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology …-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to … gauge their contribution to short-run investment fluctuations. We estimate an upper bound for the contribution of technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736762

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Westermann, Frank - 2001

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398919

Racial differences in labor market transitions and the Great Recession

Couch, Kenneth A.; Fairlie, Robert W.; Xu, Huanan - 2016

Labor force transitions are empirically examined using CPS data matched across months from 1996-2012 for Hispanics, African-Americans and whites. Transition probabilities are contrasted prior to the Great Recession and afterwards. Estimates indicate that minorities are more likely to be fired as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432552

The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - 2016

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421672

Real wages and business cycle asymmetries : presented at CESifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003

Woitek, Ulrich - 2004

The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261

Systematic monetary policy and the macroeconomic effects of shifts in loan-to-value ratios

Bachmann, Ruediger; Rüth, Sebastian - 2017

What are the macroeconomic consequences of changing aggregate lending standards in residential mortgage markets, as measured by loan-to-value (LTV) ratios? In a structural VAR, GDP and business investment increase following an expansionary LTV shock. Residential investment, by contrast, falls, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646925

Yield curve and financial uncertainty : evidence based on US data

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019

How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029082