Similar Search Results

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

Export decision under risk

Sousa, José de; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl - 2016

Using firm and industry data, we establish two facts: (i) Uncertainty about demand conditions not only reduces export sales and exporting probabilities but also makes exports less sensitive to trade policy; (ii) the most productive exporters are more affected by higher industry-wide expenditure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934

Mincer earnings functions for the Netherlands 1962-2012

Hartog, Joop; Gerritsen, Sander - 2016

We extract estimation results on the Mincer earnings function from four earlier studies and add new results from a recent dataset. We analyse differences related to differences in earnings concepts, in sampling frame and differences among studies that cannot be explained. Jointly, the studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011416388

Subsidizing health-conscious behavior now or later

Danilowicz-Gösele, Kamila; Schwager, Robert - 2016

In a model where consumers have quasi-hyperbolic preferences, we compare immediate subsidies paid for health-conscious consumption and future subsidies rewarding good health outcome. We characterize the subsidy rates which implement the unbiased choice. These rates differ because of two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420788

Venture cycles : theory and evidence

Gehrig, Thomas P.; Stenbacka, Rune - 2003

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in venture capital markets creates investment cycles when competing financiers undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by competition among...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506424

Searching for Keynes : an essay on the political economy of fiscal policy, with application to Canada, 1870-2000 - revised version

Winer, Stanley L.; Ferris, John Stephen - 2003

Keynes' General Theory (1936) is arguably one of the most important books of the twentieth century. His ideas for … stabilizing the aggregate economy have profoundly influenced economic theory as well as popular opinion about what governments can … and should do with respect to the business cycle. On the other hand, whether Keynesian theory has substantially altered …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509394

Labor market sorting in Germany : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Employment and Social Protection, April 2016

Lochner, Benjamin; Schulz, Bastian - 2016

This paper analyzes the allocation of workers to jobs and the wage distribution in Germany. Our main contribution is to reconcile prominent empirical models of wage dispersion (Abowd et al., 1999; Card et al., 2013) with theoretical sorting models (Shimer and Smith, 2000; Eeckhout and Kircher, 2011;...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011524613

For better or for worse? : state-level marital formation and risk sharing

Chami, Ralph; Hess, Gregory D. - 2002

Why do some U.S. states have higher levels of marital formation than others? This paper introduces an economic model wherin a state s representative individual may choose to marry in order to diversify his or her idiosyncratic income risk. The paper demonstrates that such a diversification...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409730

Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe

Leith, Campbell B.; Malley, James R. - 2002

A persistent criticism of general equilibrium models of monetary policy which incorporate nominal inertia in the form of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is that they fail to capture the extent of inflation inertia in the data. In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409738

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