quite rapidly with the forecast horizon, and (b) AugGVAR forecasts do as well as other data-rich forecasting techniques for … short horizons, and tend to do better for longer forecast horizons. …

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that … covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while … use this indicator to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the US, the OECD area, and the world economy during the …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that … nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the … government also deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy …