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Volatility forecasts for the RTS stock index : optionimplied volatility versus alternative methods

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Teterkina, Daria - 2019

This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997328

Asymmetric connectedness on the US stock market : bad and good volatility spillovers

Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš - 2015

This paper suggests how to quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers that emerge due to bad and good volatility … stocks at the disaggregate level. Moreover, the spillovers of bad and good volatility are transmitted at different magnitudes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509638

Persistence in the Russian stock market volatility indices

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; … - 2018

volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903723

Gold, oil, and stocks : dynamic correlations

Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš - 2015

We employ a wavelet approach and conduct a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between pairs of key traded assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515402

Dissecting characteristics nonparametrically

Freyberger, Joachim; Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2018 - This version: July 2018

We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888693

Dissecting characteristics nonparametrically

Freyberger, Joachim; Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2017 - This version: February 2017

We propose a nonparametric method to test which characteristics provide independent information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619632

Macro-financial linkages in the high-frequency domain : the effects of uncertainty on realized volatility

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Karanasos, Menelaos; Yfanti, … - 2019

This paper estimates a bivariate HEAVY system including daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro …-augmented asymmetric power extension. It focuses on economic factors that exacerbate stock market volatility and represent major threats to … commodity markets on stock market realized volatility. Specifically, Economic Policy Uncertainty is shown to be one of the main …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012158736

Forecasting exchange rates : an investor perspective

Melvin, Michael; Prins, John; Shand, Duncan - 2013

The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743826

Hybrid historical simulation VaR and ES : performance in developed and emerging markets

Zikovic, Sasa; Filer, Randall Keith - 2009

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891679

Ranking of VaR and ES Models : performance in developed and emerging markets

Zikovic, Sasa; Filer, Randall Keith - 2012

based on volatility updating and nonparametric mirrored historical simulation. ES backtesting results are similar to VaR …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009665398