milder macroeconomic responses to a monetary policy shock estimated with our VAR in presence of high uncertainty. A version …

residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …

output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the … restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization …, generates theory-consistent impulse responses, and is as close as possible to the recursive scheme. …

the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the …

policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international output, a drop in global inflation rates, a rise in international … shock to foreign real GDP growth. …