Using firm and industry data, we establish two facts: (i) Uncertainty about demand conditions not only reduces export … regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation …

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show … that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the …, subjective uncertainty closely tracks conditional volatility of shocks: Both exhibit an asymmetric V-shaped relationship with …

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is … constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and … robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of …

We demonstrate that the impact of increases in uncertainty on bank credit conditions depends on the level of … uncertainty. Using firm-level survey data, we document that a surge in business-specific uncertainty is particularly damaging when … this uncertainty is low: low levels nearly triple the effect compared to high levels. The result is robust to controlling …

Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we … document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of … income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty reduces the mean expectation of income when using professional forecasters …

risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty - the ambiguity triangle - and show that … characterize this heterogeneity with finite-mixture estimates of a one-parameter extension of Expected Utility Theory wherein 48 …

and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and … show that uncertainty not only determines the type of cooperative policy but also whether countries want to cooperate at … all. Countries facing larger model disagreement also need to face larger uncertainty with respect to policy spillovers to …

-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature … focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part proposes a novel measure … of global financial uncertainty and shows that its unexpected variations are associated to statistically and economically …

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very …, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich … administrative data, we find that firms exposed to high uncertainty decide to “wait and see” before investing, despite generous …

not only to income uncertainty but also to policy uncertainty. …