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We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533939
models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a …-level exposure to the 2008-9 financial crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and has … 12% higher today if productivity-enhancing investments had grown at pre-crisis rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573282
labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP). Initially, trend TFP revisions contribute most to the overall PO revisions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026398
In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components. The main findings are that there exist three cycles with a period of about two, five and 13 years, respectively, and that the long-run development during the last 50 years can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408403
Despite massive digitization efforts, the German economy has experienced a marked slowdown in its productivity growth … that commenced around 2005. The successful integration of five million predominantly low-productivity workers into the … labor market induced an attenuating effect on productivity growth. This does not explain the slowdown entirely, however. As …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900858
continuous rise in labour productivity. It is related to the Okun coefficient which describes the relationship between the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781535
We revisit UK's poor productivity performance since the Great Recession by means of both a suitable theoretical … over time, and distinguish between quantity total factor productivity (TFP-Q), i.e., the capacity to turn inputs into more … physical output (number of shirts, liters of beer), and what we call revenue total factor productivity (TFP-R), i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012387534
This paper defines economic slumps as sequences of structural breaks exhibiting a specific pattern. We identify 58 such episodes between 1950 and 2008 among 138 countries, and then examine the phases of decline and their duration. In some countries declines last extremely long, and we put...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010234524
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743745
During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011292980