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Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper … reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have been used for this purpose. Three main approaches have been used …, exogenously generated changes in the unconditional residual covariance matrix, changing volatility modelled by a Markov switching …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010249640
A growing literature uses changes in residual volatility for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive … in applications in this context. This study reviews the different volatility models and points out their advantages and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509631
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151
This paper suggests how to quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers that emerge due to bad and good volatility … stocks at the disaggregate level. Moreover, the spillovers of bad and good volatility are transmitted at different magnitudes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509638
describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns … ; volatility ; stock market ; transition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003942099
volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749656
This paper aims to select the best model or set of models for modelling volatility of the four most popular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882344
This paper investigates the impact of business and political news on stock market returns in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. For this purpose, it employs a Markov switching model including a separate index for each of the two categories of news considered. The results indicate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931539
03/1/2000-12/5/2013. The estimated VAR-GARCH(1,1) model allows for both mean and volatility spillovers and for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422554