We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency … for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a …

more sophisticated time-series forecasting methods and models such as fractional integration, R/S analysis and …

information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with … the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its … confidence in the countries it trades with and its price competitiveness. In a pseudo out-of-sample, real-time forecasting …

forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …