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Macroeconomic expectations and state-dependent factor returns
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2023
We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014388605
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Dynamic trading and asset prices : Keynes vs. Hayek
Cespa, Giovanni; Vives, Xavier - 2009
We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We show that prices are farther away from (closer to) fundamentals compared with average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897551
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Predictability of asset returns and the efficient market hypothesis
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983206
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A critique of the literature on the US financial debt crisis
Stein, Jerome L. - 2010
A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003936616
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Higher order expectations, illiquidity, and short-term trading
Cespa, Giovanni; Vives, Xavier - 2011
Order Expectations (HOEs) about the two factors that influence the aggregate demand: fundamentals information and liquidity … HOEs about fundamentals are subdued, prices under-rely on public information, the market hovers in a high liquidity state …. Equivalently, illiquidity arises as a byproduct of the lack of participation of informed investors in their capacity of liquidity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011130
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Monetary policy with diverse private expectations
Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio; Piccillo, Giulia; … - 2015 - This version, January 26, 2015
We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496147
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Application of stochastic optimal control to financial market debt crises
Stein, Jerome L. - 2009
This interdisciplinary paper explains how mathematical techniques of stochastic optimal control can be applied to the recent subprime mortgage crisis. Why did the financial markets fail to anticipate the recent debt crisis, despite the large literature in mathematical finance concerning optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807893
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Cash flow duration and the term structure of equity returns
Weber, Michael - 2016
The term structure of equity returns is downward-sloping: stocks with high cash flow duration earn 1.10% per month lower returns than short-duration stocks in the cross section. I create a measure of cash flow duration at the firm level using balance sheet data to show this novel fact. Factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011521939
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Treasury auctions and secondary market dynamics : an analysis based on the MTS market for Italy
Cafiso, Gianluca - 2015
Auctions of government bonds are the main allotment method used by the Treasury of advanced economies. Previous research has found that auctions have an influence on the market yield days before they take place, and underpricing is usually spotted when their outcome is compared with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010519950
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Exchange competition, entry, and welfare
Cespa, Giovanni; Vives, Xavier - 2018
outcome in terms of liquidity and (generally) welfare compared to the case of an unregulated monopoly. Controlling entry or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011954459